African States Emerge in the Canadian Soybeans Market
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For 2022-23, Canadian farmers planted 2.13 Mha of Soybeans, versus 2.15 Mha last season, with the harvested area estimated at 2.12 Mha. Production is 6.5 Mt, versus 6.3 Mt in 2021-22. The province of Ontario is the largest producer of Soybeans in Canada at almost 4.0 Mt, followed by the provinces of Manitoba and Quebec, which grew 1.3 and 1.1 Mt of Soybeans, respectively. Total supply is forecast to increase to 7.2 Mt on higher production and carry-in combined with stable imports.
Carry-out stocks are forecast up from last year at 0.35 Mt versus the five-year average of 0.45 Mt. Exports are forecast to increase by 3%, to 4.4 Mt, with shipments headed to diverse countries. The export pace through Canada’s licensed grain handling facilities to the end of October is down 26%, with loads mainly divided between China and the European Union. Domestic processing is forecast to increase slightly to 1.9 Mt compared to 2021.
Soybean prices are forecast to rise to $690/t on support from higher US prices and a weaker Canadian dollar offsetting pressure from a large US Soybean crop. A stable Canada-US dollar exchange rate is assumed for 2022-23.
For 2022-23, world oilseed production is forecast at 644 Mt by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), a rise of 40 Mt from 2021. US Soybean production is projected at 4.35 billion bushels (Bbu), down 3% from last year, creating a slight drop in American Soybean supplies. US Soybean exports are forecast at 2.05 Bbu while domestic crush increases to 2.25 Bbu. Ending stocks are predicted to fall to 0.22 Bbu, versus 0.27 Bbu for 2021-22 and the five-year average of 0.48 Bbu. The USDA projects the farm gate price of Soybeans to remain unchanged from last month at US$14.00/bu versus US$13.30/bu for 2021-22.
Canadian Soybean Trade Overview
According to AgFlow data, Canada exported 310,421 tons of Soybeans in January 2023. In 2022, China led its export market with 1 million tons, followed by Algeria (0.4 million tons), Iran (0.4 million tons), Egypt (0.25 million tons), and Italy (0.18 million tons).
In 2020, Canada exported Soybeans worth $1.95 billion, making it the 5th largest exporter of Soybeans in the world. In the same year, Soybeans was the 29th most shipped product in Canada. The leading destination of Soybeans exports from Canada is Iran ($303 million), China ($206 million), Japan ($196 million), Italy ($139 million), and Bangladesh ($118 million).
The same year, Canada imported Soybeans worth $129 million, becoming the world’s 35th largest importer of Soybeans. In the same year, Soybeans was Canada’s 439th most imported product. Canada imports Soybeans primarily from: the United States ($108 million), India ($15.1 million), China ($2.3 million), Turkey ($1.01 million), and Ethiopia ($785k).
In November 2022, Canada’s Soybeans exports accounted for up to C$987 million, and imports accounted for up to C$40.8 million, resulting in a positive trade balance of C$946 million. Between November 2021 and November 2022, the exports of Canada’s Soybeans have increased by C$367 million (59.3%) from C$619 million to C$987 million, while imports increased by C$10.6 million (35.1%) from C$30.2 million to C$40.8 million.
The increase in Soybeans’ year-by-year exports was explained primarily by the rise in exports to China (C$60.8 million or 1.75k%), Iran (C$22.3 million or 39.1%), and Indonesia (C$6.77 million or 73.3%). In November 2022, Soybeans were exported mainly to China (C$422 million), Italy (C$92.6 million), Iran (C$73 million), Egypt (C$69.2 million), and Algeria (C$53.3 million). The same month, Canada primarily imported soybeans from the United States (C$22.3 million), Togo (C$10.8 million), Nigeria (C$2.91 million), Benin (C$1.57 million), and China (C$1.12 million).
Other sources: AGRICULTURE CANADA
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